Polls produce a divided, fractured and polarized nation

Luis Tadeu

Anybody who desires to research the 2022 presidential elections in Brazil sooner or later can have an concept of ​​the specifics of those elections. A very completely different nation.

With the tip of the second spherical, the 2022 presidential election may be described as an unprecedented second within the historical past of Brazil. This isn’t only a rhetorical exaggeration. In response to political scientists and historians, the dispute between Bolsonaro and Lula was characterised by quite a few unprecedented components and confirmed how the previous couple of years have profoundly modified the electoral state of affairs of the nation.

“That is in contrast to something” seen in different democratic presidential elections in Brazil, political analysts say.

A few of these improvements could look like easy particulars. For instance, it was the primary time that two democratically elected presidents of a republic, together with an incumbent, confronted one another immediately, and the primary time a president had received a 3rd time period. The evil ones say that in these elections a former convict fought in opposition to a future prisoner.

Furthermore, for the reason that re-election of the president grew to become attainable, the president in workplace has by no means missed an opportunity for a second time period, as occurred with Jair Bolsonaro. On this election, it was a dispute between President Jair Bolsonaro and a pen in opposition to Luiz Inácio’s opponent Lula da Silva. Even with huge cash, Bolsonaro was not re-elected.

Additionally it is the smallest distinction in votes between candidates within the first and second rounds, though on this case our historic streak may be very brief. Lastly, the nation went on to beat its document for democratic presidential elections (33 years from 1989 to 2022 in comparison with a a lot shorter interval from 1945 to 1964).

We already had such a powerful polarization as the present one, with supporters of Getúlio Vargas and anti-Vargas, or between the voters of Juscelino Kubitschek and his opponents. Controversy is anticipated and even optimistic in democratic regimes.

What’s unhealthy is radical polarization, disregard for democratic guidelines.

As in 2018, he restored a component of Brazilian politics that was forgotten after the dismantling of Integralism, the primary Brazilian fascist motion of the Nineteen Thirties.

Solely then did the Brazilian far proper handle to develop right into a mass motion with sturdy well-liked participation and charismatic management.

After that, we’ve all the time had very charismatic right-wing politicians, corresponding to the previous president of the Republic, Janio Cuadros. However they all the time tried to restrict the mass participation of the inhabitants in elections. One other instance is Fernando Collor de Mello. It’s no accident that the populists Janio Cuadros and Collor de Mello didn’t end their phrases.

Voting was seen as the one seal they wanted, and aside from that, there was no purpose for the populace to become involved in politics. Bolsonarism reverses this logic as it’s a grassroots motion that, mockingly, questions the legitimacy of elections.

Social gathering polarization just like that which confronted PT and PSDB all through the Nineties and first many years of the twenty first century in presidential elections. Now it’s right to talk of radical polarization, removed from the logic of the events. On this election, the PSDB shrank in dimension and misplaced the jewel within the crown, the state authorities of São Paulo. São Paulo elected Bolsonarist, newcomer to politics Tarcisio de Freitas.

Our presidential method favors personality-centered disputes. Solely those that succeed stay aggressive by making a direct line with the voter.

Lula and Bolsonaro: a bitter dispute Picture: Ravena Rosa/EBC and Agência Senado

That is the primary time we’ve two principal candidates with sturdy public ties. When did this occur earlier than? By no means. “Till 1989, the candidates had been all the time members of the civilian or army elite,” analyzes journalist Rodrigo Viseu, creator of Os Presidentes and creator of the Presidente da Semana podcast.

Solely now, on the age of 77, Lula has confronted and defeated a candidate who additionally has a preferred type. In reality, it was throughout these elections that two political “beasts” clashed on the polling stations, every with its personal radical followers.

The final time Brazil elected a president with an elite profile was in 1998 on the FHC. 1 / 4 of a century in the past. So the prospects of elites who dream of sporting the presidential sash appear to me a problem.

One other aspect that distinguishes the 2022 presidential election is the home mobilization in favor of each candidates, not the capitals.

Mass mobilization was extra widespread in massive cities because of the complexity of points in these facilities. Now we’re seeing, for instance, the mobilization of the hinterland of the Northeast and the Midwest, the place Lula and Bolsonaro, respectively, managed to get 90% or extra of the votes.

By all appearances, the present polarization can have long-term penalties for the citizens.

We noticed two main failures organizing voters, not convergence. Analyzing the solutions within the polls on the positioning of voters who supported the 2 candidates, we seen that they don’t differ dramatically.

After all, the victories of candidates very near Bolsonaro in legislative elections give us indicators of a extra conservative right-wing voter, however this doesn’t correspond to the vast majority of society or something near 50% of the citizens.

One other function: hundreds of individuals on the streets, on the barricades, blocking roads for the losers of the elections, non-recognition of the voting outcomes. We’re a divided, divided and polarized nation. The massive process of the elected authorities would be the unification of the nation.


Luis Tadeu Nunez e Silva agronomist, lecturer, columnist, author and traveler. Creator of the e-book “From crutches I made wings.” The world’s most traveled South American with restricted mobility, he has visited 151 international locations on all continents.

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